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VOICE ARCHIVE

Eric Jhonsa

@ericjhonsa
126 posts
2026-01-29
[...] It was notable that (on top of a big capex guide) Meta says it's still compute-constrained and will likely remain so for much of 2026.  I've felt for a while that Meta faces bigger AI capex ROI questions than the other tech giants, given its lack of an IaaS business (for now, anyway) and Llama's failure to impress thus far.  But Zuck clearly feels they need a lot more compute, and markets are once more giving him a green light to spend a ton on it.
2026-01-29 View on X
Meta

Meta reports Q4 revenue up 24% YoY to $59.9B, vs. $58.35B est., net income up 9% to $22.8B, and family DAP up 7% to 3.58B for December; META is up 7%+

Meta Platforms, Inc. (Nasdaq: META) today reported financial results for the quarter and full year ended December 31, 2025.

[...] It was notable that (on top of a big capex guide) Meta says it's still compute-constrained and will likely remain so for much of 2026.  I've felt for a while that Meta faces bigger AI capex ROI questions than the other tech giants, given its lack of an IaaS business (for now, anyway) and Llama's failure to impress thus far.  But Zuck clearly feels they need a lot more compute, and markets are once more giving him a green light to spend a ton on it.
2026-01-29 View on X
Bloomberg

Meta expects its 2026 capex to be $115B to $135B, compared with a $110.6B analyst estimate and $72.2B in 2025, driven by investments in Superintelligence Labs

Meta Platforms Inc.'s better-than-expected sales outlook helped ease Wall Street concerns about plans for unprecedented spending on artificial intelligence this year.

2025-12-11
A 10% AH drop on numbers like these (for a stock that was already well off its highs) would've been unthinkable during the Dot-com bubble. Night-and-day difference in terms of investor skepticism, even though you have major capacity shortages today vs. gluts back then.
2025-12-11 View on X
CNBC

Oracle reports Q2 revenue up 14% YoY to $16.06B, below $16.21B est., and raises its FY capex forecast to ~$50B, up from $35B as of September; ORCL drops 15%+

Oracle shares sank 11% in extended trading on Wednesday after the database software maker reported lower quarterly revenue …

After adding $68B in RPO in FQ2, $ORCL is raising its FY26 (ends May '26) capex guide by $15B to $50B and its FY27 revenue guide by $4B to $89B. FQ3 sales and EPS guide is in-line. Stock is nonetheless down 10% AH for now. (transcript via Quartr) [image]
2025-12-11 View on X
CNBC

Oracle reports Q2 revenue up 14% YoY to $16.06B, below $16.21B est., and raises its FY capex forecast to ~$50B, up from $35B as of September; ORCL drops 15%+

Oracle shares sank 11% in extended trading on Wednesday after the database software maker reported lower quarterly revenue …

2025-11-20
A few things that stand out in $NVDA's CFO commentary: 1) “Supply-related commitments” were at $50.3B at the end of FQ3, and “multi-year cloud service agreements” rose by $13.4B Q/Q to $26B. For comparison, Nvidia said in August that “total purchase commitments” (inclusive of [image]
2025-11-20 View on X
CNBC

Nvidia reports Q3 revenue up 62% YoY to $57.01B, above $54.92B est., Data Center revenue up 66% YoY, and forecasts Q4 revenue above est.

Nvidia reported fiscal third-quarter earnings and revenue that topped Wall Street expectations on Wednesday and provided stronger-than-expected sales guidance for the fourth quarte...

2025-11-12
Key slides from $AMD's Analyst Day presentation. For all the “AI bubble!” shouting, valuations for a lot of infra plays still imply a ton of investor skepticism about the multi-year forecasts that many reputable companies are making (and that's very different from 1999/2000). [image]
2025-11-12 View on X
Bloomberg

AMD CEO Lisa Su says AMD's annual revenue growth will average more than 35% and AI data center revenue growth will average 80% over the next three to five years

Lineup confirms 2026 release for Zen 6, coming with expanded AI features Samantha Subin / CNBC : AMD stock soars 10% on strong growth projections as CEO Su calls AI spending ‘the r...

2025-11-02
Biggest takeaway for me from the Altman/Nadella podcast is that OpenAI's revenue is well above the reported $13B annualized. Important given how much skepticism remains about their long-term capex plans. Comments about agents working for multiple days were also interesting.
2025-11-02 View on X
@bg2pod

Q&A with Sam Altman and Satya Nadella about the Microsoft-OpenAI partnership, OpenAI's restructuring and $100B revenue target for 2027, $3T AI buildout, more

BG2. All things AI w @sama & @satyanadella. A Halloween Special. 🎃🔥@bg2pod @altcap — (00:00) Intro (02:28) Microsoft's Investment in OpenAI (03:19) The Nonprofit Structure and Its ...

2025-10-30
Unlike $AMZN, $MSFT or $GOOG, $META doesn't have a public cloud biz and is spending a ton (both via capex and R&D) to train a frontier LLM that hasn't kept up with rivals in evals. That makes it a unique case among the top hyperscalers when it comes to debating AI spending ROI.
2025-10-30 View on X
Meta

Meta reports Q3 revenue up 26% YoY to $51.2B, vs. $49.4B est., net income down 83% YoY to $2.7B, and family DAP up 8% to 3.54B for September; META drops 12%+

Meta Platforms, Inc. (Nasdaq: META) today reported financial results for the quarter ended September 30, 2025.

I'm bullish on AI infra, but if one wants to make a bear case, I think it's that certain spenders ( $META, xAI, sovereigns, etc.) have very uncertain ROIs. Much stronger argument IMO than saying that overall AI end-demand/revenue isn't growing fast.
2025-10-30 View on X
Reuters

Meta recorded a $15.93B one-time income tax charge related to Trump's Big Beautiful Bill, and expects 2025 capex of $70B-$72B, up from its $66B-$72B forecast

Jaspreet Singh / Reuters :

$META revises its 2025 capex guide to $70B-$72B from $66B-$72B and says it now expects capex dollar growth to be “notably larger in 2026 than 2025” (compares with a prior guide of similar dollar growth). Suggests 2026 capex will be soundly above $100B (consensus is at $98B). [image]
2025-10-30 View on X
Meta

Meta reports Q3 revenue up 26% YoY to $51.2B, vs. $49.4B est., net income down 83% YoY to $2.7B, and family DAP up 8% to 3.54B for September; META drops 12%+

Meta Platforms, Inc. (Nasdaq: META) today reported financial results for the quarter ended September 30, 2025.

I'm bullish on AI infra, but if one wants to make a bear case, I think it's that certain spenders ( $META, xAI, sovereigns, etc.) have very uncertain ROIs. Much stronger argument IMO than saying that overall AI end-demand/revenue isn't growing fast.
2025-10-30 View on X
Meta

Meta reports Q3 revenue up 26% YoY to $51.2B, vs. $49.4B est., net income down 83% YoY to $2.7B, and family DAP up 8% to 3.54B for September; META drops 12%+

Meta Platforms, Inc. (Nasdaq: META) today reported financial results for the quarter ended September 30, 2025.

2025-10-29
Jensen says $NVDA already has visibility for $500B+ of Blackwell/Rubin revenue through the end of 2026. Points to estimates for the next few quarters being much too low — the FY26 (ends Jan. '26) revenue consensus is at $206.7B, and the FY27 consensus is at $276B. [image]
2025-10-29 View on X
Bloomberg

After Nvidia GTC, Jensen Huang says “I don't believe we're in an AI bubble” and that Nvidia expects to sell 20M Blackwell chips, up from 4M Hopper chips

Nvidia Corp. Chief Executive Officer Jensen Huang announced a flurry of new partnerships and dismissed concerns about an AI bubble …

2025-09-10
Less than 8 months after the DeepSeek panic, we have $ORCL forecasting its IaaS revenue will grow 14x from FY25 to FY30. [image]
2025-09-10 View on X
CNBC

Oracle reports Q1 revenue up 12% YoY to $14.93B, vs. $15.04B est., $2.9B net income, and remaining performance obligations up 359% YoY to $455B; ORCL jumps 40%+

Jordan Novet / CNBC :

Less than 8 months after the DeepSeek panic, we have $ORCL forecasting its IaaS revenue will grow 14x from FY25 to FY30. [image]
2025-09-10 View on X
Bloomberg

Larry Ellison becomes the world's richest person for the first time, at $393B, overtaking Elon Musk at $385B, as Oracle's stock jumps 40%+ after beating Q1 est.

Larry Ellison has become the world's richest person for the first time, ending Elon Musk's nearly year-long reign in the top spot.

You also have $CRWV saying it's seen another “inflection” in demand over the last 4-6 weeks, and that contract durations are extending from 2-3 years to 4-6 years (transcript via Quartr). [image]
2025-09-10 View on X
Bloomberg

Larry Ellison becomes the world's richest person for the first time, at $393B, overtaking Elon Musk at $385B, as Oracle's stock jumps 40%+ after beating Q1 est.

Larry Ellison has become the world's richest person for the first time, ending Elon Musk's nearly year-long reign in the top spot.

You also have $CRWV saying it's seen another “inflection” in demand over the last 4-6 weeks, and that contract durations are extending from 2-3 years to 4-6 years (transcript via Quartr). [image]
2025-09-10 View on X
CNBC

Oracle reports Q1 revenue up 12% YoY to $14.93B, vs. $15.04B est., $2.9B net income, and remaining performance obligations up 359% YoY to $455B; ORCL jumps 40%+

Jordan Novet / CNBC :

2025-08-31
Chatbot query growth is bound to slow down over the next couple of years. But that might not mean much for AI compute consumption growth. https://www.wsj.com/... [image]
2025-08-31 View on X
Wall Street Journal

The price per token for AI models has fallen, but costs for developers are rising as newer reasoning models require more tokens to complete tasks

With models doing more ‘thinking,’ the small companies that buy AI from the giants to create apps and services are feeling the pinch X: @ericjhonsa , @emollick , @mims , @mims , @m...

2025-07-31
$META says it expects “similarly significant capital expenditures dollar growth in 2026.” With Meta's new 2025 capex guide implying a $30B Y/Y increase in capex at the $69B midpoint, that might mean 2026 capex will approach $100B (sell-side consensus is at just $72.2B). [image]
2025-07-31 View on X
CNBC

Meta expects 2025 capital expenditures to be between $66B and $72B, raising the low end of the company's previous estimate of $64B to $72B

Jonathan Vanian / CNBC :

$MSFT's commercial bookings rose 30% Y/Y in CC in FQ4, commercial RPO rose 35% and Azure grew 39% (up from 35% in FQ3). Numbers like that make it easier to justify continuing to grow capex (+27% Y/Y to $24.2B) at a healthy clip. [image]
2025-07-31 View on X
Microsoft

Microsoft reports Q4 revenue up 18% YoY to $76.44B, vs. $73.81B est., net income up 24% to $27.23B, forecasts Q1 above estimates; MSFT jumps 5%+

Microsoft Cloud and AI Strength Fuels Fourth Quarter Results  —  REDMOND, Wash. — July 30, 2025 — Microsoft Corp. today announced …

2025-05-29
What stands out in $NVDA's report and CFO commentary: - While the FQ2 sales guide (~$45B) is below a $45.7B consensus at the midpoint, it looks pretty good given that it bakes in an ~$8B hit from the H20 China ban.  For context, Nvidia's FQ2 sales consensus had only dropped by $2.1B since the ban was disclosed in mid-April.
2025-05-29 View on X
CNBC

Nvidia reports Q1 revenue up 69% YoY to $44.06B, above $43.31B est., Data Center revenue up 73% to $39.1B, and net income up 26% to $18.78B; NVDA jumps 5%+

Nvidia reported better-than-expected earnings and revenue on Wednesday, as the company's booming data center business recorded year-over-year growth of 73%.