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VOICE ARCHIVE

Jason Furman

@jasonfurman
23 posts
2025-12-21
An interview on AI, bubbles and more with the excellent @shiringhaffary. [image]
2025-12-21 View on X
Bloomberg

Q&A with Harvard economist Jason Furman, who consults for OpenAI, on the similarities between the AI boom and the dot-com era, AI's impact on jobs, and more

A leading economist isn't overly concerned about the fallout from the AI bubble bursting, if it happens.  But first...  Three things to know:

2025-11-05
I'm thinking of the engineering studies about ways that households could weatherize their homes, reduce electricity bills & help climate. Then economists study actual people and they did everything so imperfectly the actual results were much more disappointing. Is AI like that?
2025-11-05 View on X
Windows On Theory

Research: AI's ability to complete lengthy software engineering tasks has doubled roughly every six months, but there is a “messiness tax” for real-world tasks

METR has had a very influential work by Kwa and West et al on measuring AI's ability to complete long tasks. X: @kirillzzy , @boazbaraktcs , @benshindel , @jasonfurman , @jasonfurm...

Fascinating on the economic implications of AI from @boazbaraktcs. Boaz is more optimistic than me. But also vastly more knowledgable about AI than me. One issue I wonder about is the engineer (studying how it works in a lab) vs. the economist (studying people in the wild). [image]
2025-11-05 View on X
Windows On Theory

Research: AI's ability to complete lengthy software engineering tasks has doubled roughly every six months, but there is a “messiness tax” for real-world tasks

METR has had a very influential work by Kwa and West et al on measuring AI's ability to complete long tasks. X: @kirillzzy , @boazbaraktcs , @benshindel , @jasonfurman , @jasonfurm...

2025-10-08
Investment in information processing equipment & software is 4% of GDP. But it was responsible for 92% of GDP growth in the first half of this year. GDP excluding these categories grew at a 0.1% annual rate in H1. [image]
2025-10-08 View on X
Fortune

Harvard economist Jason Furman estimates that investments in data centers and information-processing software accounted for 92% of the US' GDP growth in H1 2025

U.S. GDP growth in the first half of 2025 was almost entirely driven by investment in data centers and information processing technology …

(To be clear, this is not a counterfactual. Absent the AI boom we would probably have lower interest rates & electricity prices, thus some additional growth in other sectors. In very rough terms that could maybe make up about half of what we got from the AI boom.)
2025-10-08 View on X
Fortune

Harvard economist Jason Furman estimates that investments in data centers and information-processing software accounted for 92% of the US' GDP growth in H1 2025

U.S. GDP growth in the first half of 2025 was almost entirely driven by investment in data centers and information processing technology …

2025-04-10
I don't think people realize that in important respects tariffs are now higher & more inflationary than what was announced on last Wednesday. Since then we've gone from 54% to 125% on China, our 3rd largest trading partner. That outweighs delaying the increases on 70+ others.
2025-04-10 View on X
CNBC

President Trump pauses tariffs on most countries for 90 days, setting a 10% “lowered Reciprocal Tariff”, and sets 125% tariffs on China “effective immediately”

- President Donald Trump announced a 90-day pause on the full effect of his new tariffs for at least some countries.

2025-04-03
Earlier this week I wrote a @nytopinion about the tariffs. The only item that aged badly: “the tariff increases in the first 4 months of his latest trade war are likely to be five to 10 times as large as those he imposed in the 4 years of his first term.” It's more like 15X. [image]
2025-04-03 View on X
CNBC

Tech stocks fall after President Trump announced new global tariffs: Meta drops as much as ~8%, Amazon drops ~7%, Nvidia ~5%, Alphabet ~4%, and Microsoft ~3%

Apple slid more than 6% in late trading Wednesday and led a broader decline in tech stocks after President Donald Trump announced …

2025-03-11
If you are implementing a credible plan that entails short-term pain for long-term gain the stock market will go up not down.
2025-03-11 View on X
Yahoo Finance

Tech stocks led a broad sell-off: the Nasdaq fell 4%, its sharpest one-day decline since Sept. 2022, with NVDA down 5%, AAPL down 5%, META down 4%, GOOG down 4%

https://www.cnbc.com/... Threads: Vishwanath Sarang Keller / @vishwanathsarangkeller : So much winning! Esther Crawford / @esthercrawford : Looking at the stock market today David ...

2023-03-14
P.S. I'm not particularly worried about moral hazard. The CEO, management & Board all losing their jobs. Equity going to zero. Bondholders won't be paid in full. These are all the entities that can effectively monitor, is unrealistic to expect depositors to do much monitoring.
2023-03-14 View on X
U.S. Department of the Treasury

The US Treasury, Federal Reserve, and the FDIC say all Silicon Valley Bank depositors will be “fully” protected, and their money will be available on March 13

Regulators probably needed to do what they did to prevent potentially chaotic damage across the economy. But make not mistake—it does have an expected cost to taxpayers. And changing the rules ex post like this means the rules were wrong ex ante. Going forward need to:
2023-03-14 View on X
U.S. Department of the Treasury

The US Treasury, Federal Reserve, and the FDIC say all Silicon Valley Bank depositors will be “fully” protected, and their money will be available on March 13

Regulators probably needed to do what they did to prevent potentially chaotic damage across the economy. But make not mistake—it does have an expected cost to taxpayers. And changing the rules ex post like this means the rules were wrong ex ante. Going forward need to:
2023-03-14 View on X
New York Times

Signature's and SVB's collapse was aided by GOP-led Dodd-Frank reforms that raised the “stress test” threshold from $50B to $250B, pushed for by SVB executives

Officials with Signature and Silicon Valley banks, which regulators seized in recent days, called for looser financial requirements for midsize banks.

P.S. I'm not particularly worried about moral hazard. The CEO, management & Board all losing their jobs. Equity going to zero. Bondholders won't be paid in full. These are all the entities that can effectively monitor, is unrealistic to expect depositors to do much monitoring.
2023-03-14 View on X
New York Times

Signature's and SVB's collapse was aided by GOP-led Dodd-Frank reforms that raised the “stress test” threshold from $50B to $250B, pushed for by SVB executives

Officials with Signature and Silicon Valley banks, which regulators seized in recent days, called for looser financial requirements for midsize banks.

2023-03-13
Regulators probably needed to do what they did to prevent potentially chaotic damage across the economy. But make not mistake—it does have an expected cost to taxpayers. And changing the rules ex post like this means the rules were wrong ex ante. Going forward need to:
2023-03-13 View on X
U.S. Department of the Treasury

The US Treasury, Federal Reserve, and the FDIC say all Silicon Valley Bank depositors will be “fully” protected, and their money will be available on March 13

WASHINGTON, DC — The following statement was released by Secretary of the Treasury Janet L. Yellen …

P.S. I'm not particularly worried about moral hazard. The CEO, management & Board all losing their jobs. Equity going to zero. Bondholders won't be paid in full. These are all the entities that can effectively monitor, is unrealistic to expect depositors to do much monitoring.
2023-03-13 View on X
U.S. Department of the Treasury

The US Treasury, Federal Reserve, and the FDIC say all Silicon Valley Bank depositors will be “fully” protected, and their money will be available on March 13

WASHINGTON, DC — The following statement was released by Secretary of the Treasury Janet L. Yellen …

2023-03-12
BTW, the @nytimes requires inflation adjustment for movie records. But not for bank failure records. https://www.nytimes.com/... https://twitter.com/...
2023-03-12 View on X
TechCrunch

How startup founders are reacting to Silicon Valley Bank's collapse, as some worry about frozen funds, operating expenses, and paying employees full salaries

'The Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), a leading lender to startups and venture capitalists … Bloomberg : Khosla Ventures Tells Some Startups Firm Will Cover Payroll South China Morning P...

BTW, the @nytimes requires inflation adjustment for movie records. But not for bank failure records. https://www.nytimes.com/... https://twitter.com/...
2023-03-12 View on X
Bloomberg

SVB draws support from 300+ VC firms, including General Catalyst, while 1,200+ founders and CEOs sign a Y Combinator petition asking the US Congress to act

More than 100 venture capital and investing firms have signed a statement supporting Silicon Valley Bank, part of mounting industry calls …

2023-01-06
Terrific to see @FTC moving ahead with a proposed rule banning non-compete agreements in labor markets—one of many steps that will help reduce the market power of employers and raise workers wages. https://www.ftc.gov/...
2023-01-06 View on X
VICE

The FTC proposes a rule banning non-compete clauses, saying the contracts harm healthy competition in the labor and product markets and block entrepreneurship

the latest move in Lina Khan's ambitious reform agenda. https://www.nytimes.com/... Elizabeth Warren / @ewarren : Imagine you hate your job. The pay is low. The benefits are crummy...

2022-11-14
Genuine question: How did people think that FTX was funding the 8% interest it was paying on Bitcoin deposits if it was not using its customers funds for something? What was the benign explanation for this while the assets were fully/safely available for redemption?
2022-11-14 View on X
CoinDesk

The Securities Commission of The Bahamas says it didn't order FTX to reopen withdrawals for Bahamas-based customers, refuting FTX's statement

Nikhilesh De / CoinDesk :

2022-11-13
Genuine question: How did people think that FTX was funding the 8% interest it was paying on Bitcoin deposits if it was not using its customers funds for something? What was the benign explanation for this while the assets were fully/safely available for redemption?
2022-11-13 View on X
CoinDesk

The Securities Commission of The Bahamas says it didn't order FTX to reopen withdrawals for Bahamas-based customers, refuting FTX's statement

FTX said last week it had allowed Bahamas-based customers to withdraw funds at its regulators' request.  —  Crypto exchange FTX was not required …

Genuine question: How did people think that FTX was funding the 8% interest it was paying on Bitcoin deposits if it was not using its customers funds for something? What was the benign explanation for this while the assets were fully/safely available for redemption?
2022-11-13 View on X
CoinDesk

FTX claims the company was hacked, telling users to delete FTX apps, not install app updates, and not to visit FTX.com, after $600M+ in crypto left its wallets

trustless, permissionless, uncensorable crypto—is the only path forward for the future. This week, we grieved. Next week, we build. @cz_binance : What a sh!t show... And it's going...